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April 16, 2011

Quick hits

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Some random thoughts two weeks into the season…

The Jeter fascination is annoying. In the many nationally televised Yankees games already this month, I’ve grown tired of listening to the announcers feel the need to defend Derek Jeter at every step because of his down year in 2010. It basically goes something to this effect: “Everyone talks about what a bad year Jeter had last season, but who wouldn’t take a shortstop that scores 100 runs, hits .270 and wins a Gold Glove.” If I hear that line again, I may puke.Here’s my simple answer: Uh, that’s nice and all but I wouldn’t be paying this guy $20 plus million, which is what Jeter’s salary was last year, for that especially when his Gold Glove is a joke.

People will always defend him because of the greatness of his entire career, but let’s face it the guy has lost a step and is currently overpaid. He only hit about 50 points below his career average in 2010. It’s like “Holy cow! We can’t just say he had a bad year because he’s an awesome player and a nice guy!” We’ll see what year he puts together this season, but he’s already off to a slow, mediocre start.

The upside AL Central. While the Twins are struggling at 4-10 and the Tigers and White Sox are hovering around .500, the Royals and Indians are killing it in first place with a 10-4 record. I’m not sure I saw a preseason prediction that included the Royals and Indians anywhere but the basement. It’s a nice start, but at the same time it’s just a nice start. It’s April 16th. I hope both teams actually stay in the hunt, but I don’t see that happening. I liked the Indians lineup in spring training, but the pitching was going to be the question. Well so far, guys like Josh Tomlin, Mitch Talbot and Justin Masterson are pitching the lights out. If one of these surprise teams stay above .500, I see it being the Tribe than the Royals.

Fun fact: The Indians are the first team in the AL to win eight straight games after starting 0-2.

Craig Kimbrel. The Braves new closer is nasty. He nailed down his fourth save of the season today in Game 1 of a DH against the Mets. And he’s been pretty much unhittable since coming up last year. Check out these gaudy numbers: in 26.2 innings pitched in his career, Kimbrel has struck out 50 batters…that’s a 16.9 K/9 rate. Whoa. Kimbrel features a sinking fastball in the mid-90′s along with a devastating slider that hitters haven’t begun to figure out to date. This young kid is making Braves fans quickly forget about retired closer Billy Wagner.

Rockies rolling at 11-2. The Rockies are off to their best start in franchise history. And they are doing it without Ubaldo Jimenez, who is sidelined with an injured thumb. The Rox have certainly been impressive, but it should be noted that they have benefited from playing the Diamondbacks, Pirates and Mets already this season. They are just beating the teams that are scheduled in front of them, but I’m interested to see how they fare against the Phillies, Giants and some of the better teams in the NL.

Oh, and how big was Troy Tulowitzki‘s series against the Mets where he had 10 hits, four HRs and eight RBIs? He’s the first player to pick up numbers like that in one series since Vlad Guerrero smoked the Rangers in September of 2004 with 12 hits, five HRs and nine RBIs.

Charlie Morton has “good stuff.” And he may be finally showing it. The sinker was sinking all over the place Friday as Morton tossed a complete game in a victory over the Reds. He came within one out of the shutout before allowing a Jay Bruce home run. This is all significant because the Pirates had only one CG in 2010 when Paul Maholm fired a CG SO on July 18. Morton already matched their one CG in just two weeks into this season. After his disastrous 2010 season, Morton is off to a stellar start already: 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three starts. NL Cy Young anyone?

 

April 15, 2011

Troy Tulowitski haunts Mets pitching

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Troy Tulowitzki went on a tear this week by teeing off early and often against Mets pitching. The 10-2 Rockies swept a four-game series at Citi Field and Tulo was a big reason why.

So how good was his week? Well to put it into perspective, he left Pittsburgh after a four-game series hitting just .214 with three home runs. After his week in New York, he’s now hitting .364 with seven home runs. Tulo badgered Mets pitching at a 10-for-16 mark with four home runs, eight RBIs and five runs in four games. The series including a doubleheader in which Tulowitzki recorded five hits and launched a home run in each game.

And this wasn’t even the thin air at Coors Field. He annihilated the ball at Citi Field, an extreme pitching park. The Mets pitching staff may have nightmares for a while. Don’t look now, but the Mets will be in Colorado in less than a month in early May. I bet they can’t wait to see Tulo and the Rockies again.

 

April 4, 2011

Garza’s historical debut

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Matt Garza made his debut with the Chicago Cubs Sunday and of course with him and the Pirates involved, something pretty rare occurred.

Garza threw 7.0 innings with three runs allowed for a no-decision. Nothing too earth shattering there, but he also struck out 12 batters while giving up 12 hits (all singles) and walking zero. I thought the 12 and 12 line was pretty rare,  so I decided to dabble in the ol’ Baseball-Reference Play Index to search for any pitcher who struck out 12 or more batters in the same game where he gave up 12 or more hits. And just like I had assumed, it was pretty rare indeed as you can see from the chart below…

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR 2B 3B
1 Matt Garza 2011-04-03 CHC PIT L 4-5 GS-7 7.0 12 3 3 0 12 0 0 0
2 Curt Schilling 2001-04-25 ARI FLA W 10-7 GS-7 ,W 7.0 13 7 7 0 12 3 3 0
3 Todd Stottlemyre 1995-09-20 OAK CAL W 9-6 GS-9 ,W 8.1 12 3 3 0 12 1 3 0
4 Steve Carlton 1983-04-16 PHI ATL W 8-4 GS-8 ,W 8.0 12 4 4 4 12 0 3 0
5 Gaylord Perry 1982-04-20 SEA CAL W 6-4 GS-8 ,W 7.1 12 4 4 1 13 0 2 1
6 Bert Blyleven 1975-09-15 MIN CAL W 7-6 GS-10 10.0 12 6 5 3 12 0 2 2
7 Nolan Ryan 1973-09-23 CAL MIN W 15-7 CG 9 ,W 9.0 13 7 7 5 12 0 1 0
8 Bob Gibson 1970-08-12 STL SDP W 5-4 CG 14 ,W 14.0 13 4 4 2 13 1 3 0
9 Fergie Jenkins 1968-08-13 CHC STL W 10-3 CG 9 ,W 9.0 12 3 3 3 12 1 2 0
10 Blue Moon Odom 1968-07-29 OAK CHW L 2-7 GS-13 ,L 12.1 13 4 4 1 13 0 0 2
11 Juan Marichal 1965-08-04 SFG CIN W 4-3 CG 10 ,W 10.0 12 3 3 3 14 0 3 0
12 Camilo Pascual 1964-10-01 MIN KCA L 4-5 CG 12 ,L 12.0 12 5 1 3 14 1 2 1
13 Juan Marichal 1964-04-24 SFG CIN W 15-5 CG 9 ,W 9.0 13 5 5 3 13 1 1 0
14 Billy Pierce 1953-07-24 CHW PHA L 2-4 CG 12 ,L 12.0 12 4 4 1 12 1 1 0
15 Saul Rogovin 1952-09-14 CHW BOS W 4-3 GS-15 15.0 12 3 3 4 14 2 1 1
16 Marv Grissom 1952-09-13 CHW NYY L 5-6 GS-8 ,L 8.0 12 6 4 1 13 0 2 1
17 Bill Werle 1950-08-27 (1) PIT BSN L 3-7 12.0 12 7 6 4 13 4
18 Bobo Newsom 1944-05-21 (1) PHA CLE L 4-5 11.0 12 5 5 4 12 2 2 0
19 Bob Feller 1941-08-07 CLE DET L 3-4 13.0 13 4 2 11 13 0 0 0
20 Bobo Newsom 1939-07-22 (1) DET PHA L 2-4 9.0 16 4 4 3 12 1 1 0
21 Bill Hallahan 1932-05-11 STL BRO L 3-6 12.0 12 6 6 7 12 0 4 0
22 Red Ruffing 1927-09-05 (1) BOS NYY W 12-11 15.0 16 8 8 11 12 1
23 Dazzy Vance 1923-05-02 BRO NYG L 6-7 10.0 15 6 6 4 15 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/4/2011.

Not only is it an impressive list of pitchers, but Garza’s performance is only the 23rd game since 1919 with that kind of pitching line. It hasn’t happened since Curt Schilling did it in 2001. Viewing this list quickly, it’s easy to see that most of these games occurred back in the 40′s, 50′s and 60′s which makes sense because starting pitchers went deeper into games no matter how many hits they surrendered. And wow, it sure is an impressive list with Schilling, Steve Carlton, Gaylord Perry, Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal (twice), Fergie Jenkins and Bob Feller just to name a few. Whoa.

Like nine of the pitchers on this list, Garza left in line for the win, but a collapse by Carlos Marmol in the ninth inning gave the Pirates a victory. Also, the only three on the list to record no walks in these games were the last three: Garza, Schilling and Todd Stottlemyre.

The Baseball Reference blog also did a post off my comment about this today that you can find here that talks about all the hits off Garza were singles. Before Garza, Feller was the last one on the list above to have given up no extra-base hits.

Even more interesting is that after Garza exited the game, the Bucs added four more hits, all singles, to finish with 16 hits and 16 singles on the afternoon. I ran a search of teams that recorded 16 or more hits in a game where all the hits were singles. This has only occurred 58 times since 1919 and just three times since 1993. The last time was Aug. 31, 2004 when the Royals pounded out 17 singles in a 9-8 victory over the Tigers.

Three games into the 2011 season and you never know what you will see next!

 

March 30, 2011

2011 vesting options

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No, no this isn’t about who wears a nice vest on their night out. With Opening Day less than 24 hours away, I think it’s time to talk about 2011 vesting options! Vesting options are incentives that are written into a player’s contract and if he accomplishes the task, the option vests and extra money is awarded. For example, Magglio Ordonez‘s injury last year hurt a little more for him as he lost out on a $15MM payday for not reaching a certain number of at-bats.

So what’s in store for this season as vesting options are concerned? Well, I’m going to predict that Mark Buehrle won’t be pitching in anything else but a White Sox uniform. Why is that? He has an option that if he’s trading at any point in the 2011 season, he gets an extra year at $15MM added to the end of his current contract, which ends at the end of this year.

Here’s one that is already over. Cards pitcher Adam Wainwright has a $9MM option for this season as long as he does not finish 2011 on the disabled list. Considering he’s out for the year, you can scratch this one off the list of possibilities.

Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez has a “set your sights incredibly high” option that could kick in this year. Ramirez will get an extra $16MM if he’s named MVP of the league or league championship series in the playoffs. It will also kick in should he be traded this season. The latter has a better chance of happening, but both are long shots.

Then you have the “this actually may happen” category leading off with Mets reliever Francisco Rodriguez. He will see a $17.5MM payday if he records 55 game finished this season AND the doctors deem him healthy at the end of the season. Are the Mets doctors looking at him for this test…?

“I’m in perfect health doctors.” – K-Rod
“Uh, we’ll be the judge of that and looks like your arm is fatigued. Guess you’re not 100 percent healthy after all. NO SOUP FOR YOU!”

Hopefully he’ll seek a second opinion. As for the games finished, K-Rod has recorded more than 55 GF five times in his career so he has a chance at this one.

And last but not least, the ol’ number of plate appearances to lock in a vesting option. This one always struck me as strange because if the team really wanted to limit your PA toward the end of the year, they could easily do it by giving the player more days off, pinch-hitting for them late in games. I could see teams do this if they were out of the pennant race late in the season, and there’s nothing a player could do about it. At any rate, here are two of these types in 2011:

Bobby Abreu‘s $9MM option vests if he reaches 433 PA this season. Abreu hasn’t had fewer than 590 PA since his rookie year, so barring a major injury Abreu will be getting this option. And why shouldn’t the Angels just keep spending money? Maybe Vernon Wells could donate the $9 mil to Abreu with his current salary.

And last up is Dodgers infielder Rafael Furcal, who will make about $10MM in 2011, but can trigger an insane $12MM option should he stay healthy to reach 600 PA. Of course, he’s only done this once in the past three years thanks to injuries. At age 33 with his recent rash of injuries, I just don’t see this one happening.

 

March 28, 2011

The Phillies rotation

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Trivia question: Who was the last team to have four 20-game winners in one year?

Answer: The 1971 Orioles rotation that featured Dave McNally (21-5, 2.89), Mike Cuellar (20-9, 3.08), Pat Dobson (20-8, 2.90) and oh yeah, Hall of Famer Jim Palmer (20-9, 2.68).

No one has been able to match that feat, or really come close for that matter. Keep in mind baseball was a different game in 1971 from today. Starting pitchers went further into games almost every time out and averaged more starts throwing on less rest than today’s pitchers. Though now the big comparison to this rotation is the current one the Phillies are about to start the 2011 season with that includes Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton (the fifth guy could be my neighbor, it really doesn’t matter).

Do four pitchers on this staff actually have a shot at 20 wins each? Well three out of four have won 20 games at some point in their career. Halladay has done it three times including last year, Oswalt twice and Lee once. Hamels career high in win was 14 in 2008, but this could be a breakout year for him with less pressure on him as the number four guy. Though Blanton actually has more wins than Hamels in a year with 16 in 2006 with Oakland.

There’s obviously a chance, but I see it as a long shot to accomplish it. The offense is certainly there for the Phillies to produce plenty of runs, but everything would basically need to go right for them to do it.

As I mentioned above, Lee has only won 20 games once in his career as injuries have been a problem for him over the years. Oswalt is also 32 years old and his back is always a question mark. He reached 200 innings last year, but I think it will be difficult for him to continue to go deep into games all year. And Hamels would really need to take a jump in production and dominate to reach the 20-win mark. Halladay appears to be a lock for 20 wins (barring injury) with the way he pitched last year for Philly.

Plus, look at the ’71 Orioles numbers above for each pitcher. McNally reached 21 wins, but the other three just barely reached 20 wins. Obviously they were an incredible staff, but even they received some luck down the stretch for three of them to just get over the mark. You need the offense to score runs, you need your bullpen to hold leads late in the game, you need to stay healthy and avoid a freak injury, need weather to hold up and not wash out a pitcher’s start among other intangibles.

Another interesting fact is while that Orioles staff was unreal with four 20-game winners, they still did not win the World Series. They came close though losing in seven games to, that’s right, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Will the Phillies hold the same fate?

 

February 19, 2011

The Mets rotation and R.A. Dickey

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Are the Mets really relying this heavily on R.A. Dickey this upcoming season? The Mets signed Dickey to a two-year deal worth about $7.5 million this offseason following his surprising 2010 season where he posted an 11-9 record with 2.84 ERA, 5.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. I’m finding last year just a bit too good to be true.

Dickey’s best ERA prior to 2010 was 2009 with a 4.62 and his six seasons before that, he didn’t have an ERA below 5. Not to mention he didn’t pitch in the Majors at all in 2007. Dickey is 36 years old, had one good season suddenly but I think it’s foolish for the Mets to move forward with him as their No. 2 starter this spring. Yes, Dickey’s a knuckleballer so he could be a workhorse like Tim Wakefield, but not every player to ever throw a knuckleball finds consistent success with it. But the Mets have serious problems if they plan on Dickey being their second arm in the rotation and he struggles to find last year’s success.

Johan Santana, who is making over $20 million a year, is out until most likely at least June. That leaves Mike Pelfrey as your ace for the beginning of the year. While Pelfrey is almost 10 years younger than Dickey, he’s not exactly the model of success either. He had a nice 2010 campaign (15-9, 3.66), but he also had a good 2008 season and followed it up with a step back in 2009 (10-12, 5.03). Does he regress again this year? The Mets can’t afford that at all. They desperately need him to step up and be that starter they can rely on to stop losing streaks if need be.

After Pelfrey and Dickey, you have patchwork that includes the likes of Jonathan Niese, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee and Chris Young. Gee has five ML games under his belt, Niese just put in his first full season in the bigs, Capuano was a mediocre pitcher at best with the Brewers and Young has appeared in four games in the past year and has more injuries than the entire Mets team suffered last year. Definitely some cause for concern, huh?

Out of this group, Niese holds the most potential by far but there’s no guarantee that he’s going to roll out there and produce behind Pelfrey and Dickey. Plus, even when Santana returns in June or July, what can the Mets expect of him after coming off shoulder surgery last September? It may take him the rest of the summer to shake off the rust and get back into his old form.

It’s going to be another long season for the Mets, one that they may not be able to blame on injuries this time. Even if Dickey meets the lowest bar of expectations for him, the rest of the rotation will need to exceed them for the Mets to put together anything close to a winning season. There’s just too many “if’s” with Dickey and the rotation for me to be confident for the Mets chances in 2011.

 

February 16, 2011

Cardinals should pay Pujols

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With reports coming out that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols will not reach a deal before their spring training deadline today, the Cardinals head into the season with uncertainty regarding the best player in baseball.

The Cardinals still have time to lock him up to a long-term deal despite missing this artificial deadline. They still have till after the World Series to do something with him, but this situation shouldn’t be where it’s at. Sometimes with special players, a team just needs to man up and pay the man what he wants.

Pujols is the best hitter in the game and has been for the past four to five years. I wrote about just how great he is last April. He’s shown zero evidence that he’s about to decline, quite the opposite actually as he continues to get better and put up ridiculous numbers year in and year out. Not to mention since his debut in 2001, he’s never missed any significant time with an injury, averaging 155.8 games played a year. He’s helped lead St. Louis to two World Series appearances in his 10-year career, including a championship in 2006. He’s already a future Hall of Famer and most likely on his way to being one of the greatest top 5 hitters in MLB history. Seriously. Those kinds of players do not come around every five years. The Cardinals need to bite the bullet and show him the money before they risk losing him to another bidder.

The situation got a little strange once Tony LaRussa decided to cast his opinion on the negotiations and state the Albert is feeling a lot of pressure from the players union to sign an enormous deal. Once again LaGenius should have just kept his mouth shut because he’s off base here with no proof of everything. The union has since denied that saying there have been no contract by them and Pujols during these talks, and I don’t believe that Pujols is even thinking about them at the moment. He should be thinking about himself, his family and where he wants to spend his future and the rest of his career. That’s it. He would be foolish to be thinking about anything else at this point.

Ken Rosenthal seems to think a trade is a real possibility that could see Pujols end up with the Yankees for Mark Teixeira or with the Phillies for Ryan Howard. He gives a disclaimer prior to his article that this is pure speculation on his part, and it really is because the Cards are not going to trade Pujols to anyone. Apparently Rosenthal was bored over the stalemate in these talks so he decided to make up some fun to get fans attention. The Cardinals would never get enough return that equals what Pujols means to their team. Second, the fallout from the fan base for not locking him out for 8-10 years and trading him away would not be very kind from a city that loves its baseball. Plus Albert has already stated that he would invoke his ten-and-five rights to veto any deal, so let’s debunk this idea right now.

In the end, I think the Cardinals will still lock Pujols up for years and try to make him the one team kind of player. I think this stalemate will last until after the season since Pujols has stated he won’t discuss a deal during the season, but eventually the Cards will wise up or break down and pay the man. Though letting the artificial deadline pass today and heading into a year of uncertainly should be a little worrisome for Cardinals nation because you just never know what can happen throughout a season of baseball especially if a player feels slighted by a franchise that he’s given everything to throughout his career.

 

December 25, 2010

So this is Christmas…

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Caught Looking wishes everyone a Merry Christmas. Please enjoy a great YouTube find of the Charlie Brown Christmas performed by the cast of Scrubs. Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all!

 

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