Player Breakdown

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June 21, 2010

So where is Roy Oswalt going if anywhere?

Posted by Xander under Player Breakdown, Trades | Tags: , , , |
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My post on Saturday about the Texas Rangers mentions that acquiring a front-line starter should be key for the Rangers and their postseason hopes this summer. And one front line starter that asked to be traded to a contender earlier this season just happens to be Roy Oswalt.

Now, I honestly haven’t followed the rumor mill surrounding Oswalt and the Astros and what teams are interested, but Oswalt to Texas just makes sense. Oswalt is from the south and moving from Houston to Arlington wouldn’t exactly be a cultural shock for him. Texas needs a starter, especially with Derek Holland and Rich Harden currently on the DL, and Oswalt wants to be moved to a contender, and Texas is just that.

The Braves are another team that I think would be interested in Oswalt, and they also could certainly use a veteran starter in a rotation that continues to run Kenshin Kawakami to the mound every fifth day despite his 0-9 record and 4.78 ERA.

Now the Astros continue to say they won’t trade Oswalt just because he wants to be dealt, but I have a problem believing a team that is 26-44 and going nowhere would stand pat and hold onto an all-star pitcher that obviously wants out of there. I believe they will listen to offers and eventually deal him at the deadline.

The problem with Oswalt going to Atlanta is I’m not sure that Braves are anxious to deal one of their young pitchers or hitting prospects in the minors. The Braves aren’t known to trade their prospects for a one- or two-year pitcher no matter what the reward is. The Rangers, on the other hand, have a plethora of pitching prospects in the farm system (which seems to be a norm for them these days) and could get by with trading them due to the young talent already up to the big league team.

At the end of the day the bottom line for if any deal gets done will be the Astros expectations of the return they will get for Oswalt. They aren’t going to get a Jason Heyward-type prospect back. Oswalt doesn’t exactly have the healthiest past with his back and shoulder, plus he turns 33 this August. They may not even get a top prospect in return, but the fact of the matter is the Astros are going nowhere in 2010 or next season, they need to begin the rebuilding process and dealing Oswalt for multiple mid-level prospects is a start.

 

June 7, 2010

The Mike Leake story

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Happy MLB First-Year Player Draft Day! I figured draft day would be a great opportunity to talk about Mike Leake for a minute. If you’re asking yourself “who the hell is Mike Leake?” than shame on you. He’s no Stephen Strasburg, but at this point he may be better or at least has accomplished a lot more in the majors.

Overshadowed by the Strasburg sweepstakes in last year’s draft, Leake was the eighth overall pick by the Reds for a $2.9 million signing bonus. Following a strong spring training, Leake became the first pitcher to skip the minors altogether since Ariel Prieto in 1995. The former Arizona State Sun Devil is only the 13th pitcher and 21st player ever to be drafted and start his pro career in the majors (a full list of these players can be found here). The last position player to do it was Xavier Nady in 2000. While there was so much attention paid to the signing of Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman, Leake quietly coasted under the radar. What has Leake done since being told he would have not have to ride buses in the minors? Well he’s only been the Reds best pitcher to date and has yet to lose a game in his career.

Leake enters Monday’s action with a 5-0 record and 2.22 ERA (73.0IP/18ER) including 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 11 starts. And there’s also not much indication that he’s been getting lucky as his .281 BAPIP shows he’s just slightly under the average mark. You should easily have a couple more wins to his total, but the bullpen blew two games after he exited with the lead and twice the Reds have given him zero run support. The right-hander has been so effective that’s he’s third overall in the NL with a 2.7 WAR, which is Wins Above Replacements, a single number that represents how the number of wins the player adds to his team above what a replacement player would like a Triple-A pitcher.

Plus he pitches in one of the top five hitting parks in the country at Great American Ballpark where more home runs have been hit in the last five seasons combined that anywhere else. Leake has given up just four home runs, all at home in 46.0 innings pitched there. The rest of the Reds rotation’s ERAs are: 4.65, 5.43, 4.09 and 5.51. And Leake sits at 2.22 with the second most innings in that rotation. To put it simple, there’s no denying Leake’s success through June 7 this season.

He’s probably the only thing standing in Jason Heyward’s way for NL rookie of the year. Leake should get a ton of credit, but I’m surprised that he’s not been talked about and focused on as much as he should be. Think if Strasburg was putting up those kind of numbers after he gets called up tomorrow. That’s all you would hear about. Leake should get the same kind of attention with the legit season he’s having.

 

May 29, 2010

Choo’s Future

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Despite the Indians injuries and struggles this year, one bright spot has been the consistent middle-0f-the-order production from South Korean Shin-Soo Choo. After acquiring Choo from Seattle for Ben Broussard (whoops) in the summer of 2006, he has been everything the Indians management expected and more.

He enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, hitting .309/.397/.549 in 94 games and followed it up with his first full season in the majors by slugging 20 homers, 86 RBIs and a line of .300/.394/.489 along with 21 steals. In two months this year, he’s once again hovering around a .300 hitter with seven jacks and 25 RBIs. Choo’s the kind of player at age 28 the Indians would love to lock up, but his future is extremely cloudy due to an interesting aspect that I don’t think I’ve seen before in baseball.

By law South Korean men must begin serving two years in the military prior to their 30th birthday. Choo turns 28 in July, so these questions should arise sometime soon. The New York Times even did an article about it today with the Indians in town.

Choo could always apply for US citizenship to avoid the military service, but the backlash in his home country may not welcome him back to the country ever. I’m not sure anyone could ask him to do that. Another option, which was brought up in the NY Times article, would be for Choo to earn an exemption by helping South Korea win the gold medal at the Asian Games this offseason. I’m not sure how this would give him an exemption to get him out of military duty, but this article seems to think it’s a given if they win. And what if they don’t win the gold medal? Who knows, but the Indians are at least speaking publicly like they aren’t worried about it.

“We feel like he’ll be able to satisfy the military obligation without missing time with us,” Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro said. “We’re confident of that.”

Unlike Shapiro I’m not so sure that he’ll be able to do the military and a full season of baseball at the same time, which leaves Choo’s future with the Indians and MLB in doubt. This will be one story that continues to develop and will be interesting to see how it works out. He’s not eligible to become a free agent until 2013, but this will be a huge factor in the already bleak Indians future.

 

May 28, 2010

Mike Pelfrey is putting it together…finally

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Is there anyone in the National League that’s improved more in one year than Mike Pelfrey?

Pelfrey continued his bounce back season last night by tossing seven shutout innings against the suddenly punch-less Phillies (Mets shut them out in three straight games). The Mets right-hander improved to 7-1 with a sparkling 2.54 ERA in 10 starts in 2010. He even picked up a save in his only outing out of the bullpen in mid-April. Pelfrey has been a huge shot in the arm for the 25-23 Mets being their most effective starter to date, and that includes better than Johan Santana.

After his breakout season in 2008 (13-11, 3.72) Pelfrey was terribly inconsistent all of last year before finishing 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 31 starts. So what’s the difference through 10 starts this year? Well for one thing he’s not allowed as many hits and home runs are significantly down. Last year, Pelfrey gave up 10.4 H/9 while he’s down to 8.1 H/9 in 2010. He also served up 18 long balls last season, but has only seen three bombs go against him this year. While his BB/9 is essentially the same, his strikeouts are up from 5.2 to 6.2 K/9. He’s also getting better defense/luck behind him with a .285 BAPIP (batting average on balls in play) down 35 points from his 2009 BAPIP of .321.

It’s definitely possible that Pelfrey will eventually balance out a bit and see his ERA rise somewhere in the 3.00 range, but one thing is for certain—this is the pitcher the Mets thought they were getting with the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft. If they are to compete all summer in the NL East, this is the Mike Pelfrey they need.

 

May 19, 2010

Is Hoffman done?

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The bottom of the ninth play-by-play from Tuesday’s afternoon game between Milwaukee and Cincinnati as Trevor Hoffman attempted to nail down his 597th career save:

- T. Hoffman relieved M. Estrada
- P. Janish singled to shallow center
- S. Rolen hit for C. Fisher
- S. Rolen homered to deep left center, P. Janish scored
- C. Heisey doubled to shallow left
- B. Phillips walked
- J. Votto singled to right, C. Heisey scored, B. Phillips to second

Obviously, Hoffman was not good Tuesday afternoon. Four hits, one walk, three runs, ZERO outs and a big fat blown save and loss. Sure, the Reds have been hot, but when the all-time saves leader blows a two-run lead in a season that continues to get worse, it begs the question—is this it for Hoffman?

It wasn’t just a bad game either because Hoffman has struggled mightily all season. He’s currently 1-3 with a 13.15 ERA with 8K-7BB. Coming into the season, he needed only nine saves to reach the milestone of 600, and he currently has five on the year. Though he’s also blown five saves this year and it’s only mid-May. He blew a total of four games all last season for the Brewers, and the most saves he’s blown in any given year throughout his career was seven. Batters are hitting well over .300 against him. He’s absolutely getting torched all over the field.

While I expect him to keep scuffling toward 600 saves, I’m not sure how much longer the Brewers will continue to go with the 42-year-old as their closer. Without question, Hoffman has had a Hall of Fame career that has him leading everyone in saves all-time, but I have to believe that his 19th season in the Majors will be his last run.

 

May 2, 2010

Too early for Cy Young talk?

Posted by Xander under Musings, Player Breakdown | Tags: , , , |
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I know I just wrote a post on how we’re only a month into the season, but after five starts I’m ready to predict the 2010 Cy Young awards. My predictions for the National League and American League Cy Young awards are Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano, respectively.

Halladay has been special for the Phillies, flying out to a 5-1 record and 1.47 ERA. I know Ubaldo Jimenez has better numbers so far that includes a no-hitter, but I don’t think he’ll manage to keep his ERA under 1.00 all year. Halladay is better because not only has he won five of his six starts, but he tossed three complete games—two of those being shutouts. If Halladay avoids an injury and is able to make 32-34 starts, he’ll easily have 20+ wins and a chance for 15 CG, which is unheard of these days. Not only is he tearing up the National League hitting like everyone expected, but the Phillies offense behind him has been huge for him.

Liriano, on the other hand, looks like he is completely healthy once again after a terrible year last season. One season after going 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA, Liriano has been downright filthy to start 2010. He’s 4-0, 1.50 ERA and 8.4 K/9 through five starts this year. Liriano appears to have found his 2006 form, where he was basically unhittable that year going 12-3, 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings. Plus, the American League Cy Young race should be wide open considering Zack Greinke can’t seem to find a win thanks to the Royals offense. Though speaking of unhittable, Justin Verlander was absolutely dominate today against the Angels. With some consistency, he’ll work his way into the top pitcher talk in the AL along with pretty much the entire Rays pitching rotation.

I know it’s only early May, but enjoy my early predictions for Cy Young.

 

April 13, 2010

Albert Pujols is ridiculously good

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Albert Pujols is good. OK, I know, duh. Unless you’ve been living in a cave the past decade, you know that Pujols is a pretty good hitter. But I actually think he doesn’t get the proper credit for what he’s currently doing and where his career numbers are heading. Not only is he the best active hitter in the league, but he has a legitimate chance to go down as the greatest hitter in the game, period. Of course he has to remain healthy, but if he does look out. He’s already on a path that leads directly to Cooperstown and who knows what else. Let’s try to put his career numbers into perspective.

In nine seasons, King Albert has never hit below .300 (hell, he hasn’t hit below .314),had only one year below a .400 OBP, never hit under 30 home runs, never drove in fewer than 100 runs and has won three National League MVPs. He would have won more MVPs had he played in a league other than Barry Bonds. Coming into this season, Pujols owns a .334 career average and has averaged 43 homers throughout his career. He’s also walked more than he struck out in every year but his rookie season.

Plus, there hasn’t been any drop off. As rare as it was, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams even had down years (keep in mind that both of those players lost four years in their prime due to WWII). When you search most home runs for the first nine years of a career, Pujols is first with 366, 15 dingers ahead of Ralph Kiner. That’s also ahead of other greats like Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ernie Banks, A-Rod, Williams and DiMaggio. There’s just no doubt about it—the numbers Pujols continues to produce are truly incredible. And he’s already off to a killer start to 2010 with five homers to lead the majors and a .407 average. I’m amazed teams continue to pitch to him consistently. It’s also worth noting that Pujols name has never been mentioned with the steroid scandal like other sluggers were.

Time will tell if he can stay healthy (lowest games played was 143 in 2006) and avoid the down year that even the greats have suffered. There’s no evidence that shows a decline could come anytime soon.

 

March 22, 2010

Kershaw or Hanson?

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I took part in two fantasy drafts on Sunday (not at the same time), and despite targeting Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw as one of the pitchers I wanted, I was not able to draft him. I underestimated the owners in both leagues thinking he would fall another round because Kershaw sits on the level between elite starters and the next level of pitchers.

In the first draft of the afternoon, Kershaw went three picks before me to a known Braves fan in my home league. I followed by taking Braves soon-to-be-stud Tommy Hanson with the mindset that I can trade Hanson to the Braves fan for Kershaw and if all else fails, I still have a great pitcher on my hands. Well I quickly proposed the trade during the draft (maybe too quickly), but the Braves fan turned it down, which got me thinking “who’s going to have the better year?”

While Hanson just made his Major League debut last summer, Kershaw is entering his third season in the bigs. He’s also coming off a great year that saw his ERA drop to a sterling 2.79 with an 8.4 K/9. His 8-8 record is definitely deceiving and those numbers should improve without question in 2010. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that he pitches in a pitcher’s haven at Dodger Stadium. He was one of the top prospects in all of baseball and even started drawing comparisons to a former Dodgers lefty in Sandy Koufax. That means you’re doing something right. Kershaw’s potential is up in the sky, and he is set to possibly put himself on the map this year.

Though Hanson made his debut last June, he dominated with an 11-4 record, 2.89 ERA and 8.2 K/9 in 127.2 innings. Not too shabby for a rookie. There’s some concern about a sophomore slump, but Hanson is one of those talents that doesn’t come along too often so I don’t anticipate a decline in his overall stats in 2010. He has the entire state of Georgia excited for the near future because of his ceiling and the things he could do for the Braves organization.

It’s obviously still extremely early in their careers, but both pitchers are on a path to stardom. But if you had to pick one to have on your team just this season, who would you take? It’s really a win-win situation because both young guns should have stellar seasons. The two fantasy magazines I currently have are split on the ranking too…one having Hanson higher and the other having Kershaw ahead though both are ranked on the same tier.

It comes down to who you want more between the two. In my opinion, since Kershaw has the two years under his belt plus with the ballpark factor added in, I like CK as the choice to have a slightly better season. I think this is a very intriguing ranking that I will look forward to tracking this season. With that said, I missed out on Kershaw in my fantasy leagues, but will gladly take Hanson for now and ride the wave of his power arm. And who knows, maybe a good April or couple starts by Hanson will give me enough ammunition to get the Hanson-Kershaw deal done.

Who would you rather have in 2010?

 

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